EloD estimates individual ability in a sport where two players share every result. It brings together match scores, partner history, and recorded performance to understand what each player contributes.
Start with the pair, learn about each player
A win tells us something about the pair. Repeated wins with the same partner strengthen that evidence, but leave room for different explanations of each player's ability.
One partner may be doing much more of the work. Or the two may contribute similarly. Shared results alone cannot always distinguish those situations.
Matches with different partners help. EloD connects those match histories to build a clearer estimate of each player's strength. It also keeps track of how much uncertainty remains.
PadelHero expresses playing strength as a Level on a 0-7 scale.
Compare the result with the challenge
EloD considers who played, the strength of both pairs, and the score. A close match against strong opponents provides different evidence from a comfortable win against a weaker pair.
The player's previous history gives that result context. As the history grows, the estimate can draw on more matches and more partnerships.
A score provides useful evidence even when no recording exists. Individual analysis adds detail when it is available.
Recognize individual contribution
Analyzed rallies can record winners, errors, and assists. EloD compares each partner's contribution with what their existing Level leads us to expect.
A stronger partner faces a higher expectation. Producing more winners does not automatically mean earning the larger increase.
This lets EloD recognize a player who performs well in a losing pair. It can also give winning partners different updates when their individual performances support that difference.
See how the same result can produce different Level changes for each partner.
Account for involvement
Opponents may send far more balls toward one player. Error totals need to be read alongside that involvement.
When complete contact data is available, EloD uses it to compare contribution in context. Ten errors across many contacts mean something different from ten errors across very few.
When contact data is incomplete, EloD works with the score and the recorded actions available for that match.
Check whether the estimate helps
We evaluate EloD against recorded match histories and league assessments. Early results show better predictions than PadelHero's existing rating. Individual analysis also helped predict later results, including matches without their own analysis.
The tests replayed recorded match histories. The largest comparison covered more than 7,500 matches; the analysis results came from a smaller group with recorded individual performance.